Research & Resources

Forecasting Future Prevalence and Gender Differences in Binge Drinking

In this study, researchers forecast the prevalence of—and gender differences in—binge drinking among three cohort groups of U.S. young adults ages 18, 23–24, and 29–30 through 2040. From the last observed cohort group (years varied by age) through 2040, unadjusted binge drinking prevalence was forecast to decrease from 26 percent to 11 percent at age 18 (2011–2015 cohort group); decrease from 38 percent to 34 percent at ages 23/24 (2006–2010 cohort group); and increase from 32 percent to 35 percent at ages 29/30 (2001–2005 cohort group). Across all ages, sociodemographic determinants of binge drinking suggested that the strongest drivers of past and future binge drinking patterns are related to alcohol norms, peer use, and use of cigarettes and marijuana. Gender-stratified forecasts show a continuation in the narrowing of binge drinking prevalence between young men and women, though the magnitude of narrowing differs by age.

This paper, “Forecasting future prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among young adults through 2040,” was funded by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) and published in the journal Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research.

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